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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 1997 > Nov > Nov 20

Re: ETH [Extra Terrestrial Hypothesis] &c

From: Jim Deardorff <deardorj@ucs.orst.edu>
Date: Thu, 20 Nov 1997 10:59:52 -0800 (PST)
Fwd Date: Thu, 20 Nov 1997 21:48:54 -0500
Subject: Re: ETH [Extra Terrestrial Hypothesis] &c

> From: clark@mn.frontiercomm.net [Jerome Clark]
> Date: Wed, 19 Nov 1997 10:47:21 PST
> To: updates@globalserve.net
> Subject: RE: UFO UpDate: Re: ETH [Extra Terrestrial Hypothesis] &c

> > Date: Tue, 18 Nov 1997 23:52:31 -0600 (CST)
> > To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
> > From: Dennis <dstacy@texas.net>
> > Subject: Re: UFO UpDate: Re: ETH [Extra Terrestrial Hypothesis] &c

> > Another question to consider: Let's assume 4 million Americans
> > have been abducted. At current rates, we represent approximately
> > 1/22nd of the world's total population. If all peoples and
> > cultures are being abducted on a proportional, regular and
> > democratic basis (and why wouldn't they be?), that would amount
> > to some 88 million abductions worldwide over, say, the last 50
> > years.

> > Do the math. The last time I tried it I think I came up with
> > something like 22,000 abductions per hour, 24 hours a day, seven
> > days a week, 365 days a year, no weekends or holidays off, and no
> > time-and-a-half for overtime. But maybe my numbers are off.

> > Or maybe Jerry Clark would like to weigh in on this one? Looks
> > like an article in the making for Nature to me. Now who wants to
> > write it up and sign their name to it? Jim? Jerry?

> > Dennis

> Dennis,
>
> Huh?  What does Nature have to do with this?
> I don't buy the zillions-of-abductees notion and
> have rejected ever since the first time I heard
> about it, in a November 1991 phone convesation
> with my friend Budd Hopkins. The best piece on
> the subject appears in Journal of UFO Studies 4
> (new series, 1992); see Hall, Rodeghier, and
> Johnson's "The Prevalence of Abductions: A
> Critical Look."

> Jerry Clark

> Date: Wed, 19 Nov 1997 10:19:38 -0500
> To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
> From: Bob Shell <76750.2717@compuserve.com>
> Subject: Re: UFO UpDate: Re: ETH [Extra Terrestrial Hypothesis] &c

> Dennis,

> Excuse me, but this is a pretty ridiculous bunch of crap.

> We don't know who are what they are.  We don't know how many of
> them there are.  We don't know what they are up to.

> Maybe there are 22,000 abductions per hour.  Maybe a million.
> What does that prove????  Without knowing just what we are dealing
> with, we have absolutely no way to quantify what a "reasonable'
> number of abductions is.

> Personally, I suspect that the number of people who have had
> this experience is far higher than even the highest estimates.

> Bob

Jerry and Bob and All,

Your opinions pretty much bracket the possibilities.  But here's
one question I have that should have an answer, though I couldn't
locate it within the Roper Report on _Unusual Personal
Experiences_.  Though the report repeatedly states that they
received 5,947 responses, how many questionaires did they send
out in the first place?  Perhaps it was two or three times as
many?  My thought is that those who felt the subject was too
silly or foolish to bother wasting time on and respond to were
likely mostly the ones who, had they responded, would have
responded negatively to most or all the questions.  So their 2%
estimate, granted that it was conservatively based on requiring
positive responses to 4 out of 5 key indicator questions, might
have been up to a factor of two too large.

Beyond this, there are plenty of assumptions Dennis made that we
should be highly suspicious of.  As another List member
mentioned, we can't expect the aliens or ETs to be "democratic,"
or random, in their work.  Most ufologists used to think that UFO
sightings should occur randomly, and that if any person had *two*
sightings, or heaven forbid, three or more, he/she must be
hallucinating or hoaxing it all.  That's no longer the consensus,
thanks to our improved understanding of the abduction phenomenon,
as limited as that is.  And after Gulf Breeze, most of us realize
that even UFO photographic opportunities can come repeatedly to
the same person.  So we shouldn't blindly assume that the
proportion of abductions within the population of many nations,
like India and perhaps China, is necessarily anywhere near as
high as in the U.S.  India seems to have quite a shortage of UFO
reports, too, does it not?  Maybe that's due to their people
already accepting the existence of many gods & goddesses (in one
form or another) within Hinduism and not requiring extensive
conditioning by the aliens to get them used to the idea of their
presence. So Dennis' assumption there might be off by a factor of
10 or  so.

And who's to say that there are not 100 or more different alien
groups (most of the greys differ in detail) engaged in the
abductions?

Then there's the likelihood that during a single night each alien
group in the abduction business abducts 10 or more persons, not
just one.  We all know of multiple-abduction cases and cases
where an abductee reports seeing several or many other abductees
also being processed.

Then there's the possibility that many of the alien groups
involved are capable of dipping from our near future back a few
decades in time to engage in abductions, with the subsequent
suppression of memories done partly for the reason of avoiding
any time paradox.  (Just a possibility to consider.)

So I think if you were to put such factors together and apply
them to Dennis' estimate, his 22,000 abductions-per-hour figure
worldwide could be pared down to a single digit per ET group.

(BTW, I'm in the habit of using "ET" and "alien" interchangeably,
so I hope this doesn't bother anyone.  ET has the advantage of
only two letters and "alien" five, and the latter is moreover
sometimes confused with "human immigrant."  And since ET allows
for the likelihood that the EBE's emerged as a civilization on
some distant planet so many millions of years ago that they have
command of interdimensional capabilities we're not yet aware of,
etc., it includes aliens who have long since left their home
planet for good, or visited here in past aeons, etc.  When I
mention ETs, I thus don't think of the aliens as cruising along
in lumbering 21st-century spaceships and abiding by 20th-century
science.)

Jim Deardorff



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