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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 1997 > Nov > Nov 23

Re: [Extra Terrestrial Hypothesis] &c

From: Dennis <dstacy@texas.net> [Dennis Stacy]
Date: Sat, 22 Nov 1997 23:02:54 -0600 (CST)
Fwd Date: Sun, 23 Nov 1997 03:41:58 -0500
Subject: Re: [Extra Terrestrial Hypothesis] &c

>Date: Sat, 22 Nov 1997 10:02:06 -0800 (PST)
>From: Jim Deardorff <deardorj@ucs.orst.edu>
>To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
>Subject: Re: UFO UpDate: Re: ETH [Extra Terrestrial Hypothesis] &c

>> Date: Fri, 21 Nov 1997 08:55:11 -0500
>> To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
>> From: Bob Shell <76750.2717@compuserve.com>
>> Subject: Re: UFO UpDate: Re: ETH [Extra Terrestrial Hypothesis] &c

>> >Your opinions pretty much bracket the possibilities.  But here's
>> >one question I have that should have an answer, though I couldn't
>> >locate it within the Roper Report on _Unusual Personal
>> >Experiences_.  Though the report repeatedly states that they
>> >received 5,947 responses, how many questionaires did they send
>> >out in the first place?  Perhaps it was two or three times as
>> >many?  My thought is that those who felt the subject was too
>> >silly or foolish to bother wasting time on and respond to were
>> >likely mostly the ones who, had they responded, would have
>> >responded negatively to most or all the questions.  So their 2%
>> >estimate, granted that it was conservatively based on requiring
>> >positive responses to 4 out of 5 key indicator questions, might
>> >have been up to a factor of two too large.

>> My magazine does a reader survey every two years or so.  Typically
>> send out around 20,000 surveys and get something like 2,000 back.
>> I'm told by the company that does our statistical analysis that
>> this is a much higher than average percentage of returns.  We
>> tried to get more returns a couple of times by giving a gift to
>> everyone who sent back the form, but it made only a tiny difference
>> in the numbers we got back, so we stopped.  I don't know details
>> of how the Roper Poll was done, but if they got back close to
>> 6,000 responses, they must have sent out 60,000 or  more
>> surveys.

>Thanks for the info, Bob.  I think that surveyors always ought to
>state the number of persons contacted who declined to respond,
>assuming they had some general idea of what it was they were
>declining. If the response rate in the Roper case was anywhere
>near as poor as you've found, the bias could be all the worse.

Jim, this would mean something if it meant something, that is, if
it were even remotely relevant, but it isn't. See previous posts
and below.

>Jim Deardorff

Jim & Bob:

I'm going to ask the both of you to get it together one last
time. The Roper organization did not send out more requests than
they received responses to. They interviewed 6000 people, period.
The responses they published are from those they interviewed, not
from 10, 20, 50 or 60 per cent of the respondents to some
mythical questionnaire. Now what is it about this that either of
you don't understand?

Let me repeat -- in slow motion -- the Roper organization
interviewed 6000 people. They were not preselected as to whether
they wanted to be interiviewed about this or that or not. They
were interviewed cold once they agreed to be interviewed.

Read the report, and address your comments accordingly. What both
of you say above has no relevance to the issue whatsoever.


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