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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 1998 > Jun > Jun 8

Re: Occam's Razor and UFOs

From: Mark Cashman <mcashman@ix.netcom.com>
Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 10:04:42 -0400
Fwd Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 23:09:21 -0400
Subject: Re: Occam's Razor and UFOs

>To: "UFO UpDates - Toronto" <updates@globalserve.net>
>From: Jerome Clar" <jkclark@frontiernet.net>
>Subject: Re: UFO UpDate: Re: Occam's Razor and UFOs
>Date: Sun, 07 Jun 98 22:18:19 PDT

>Oh, give me a break. If this is the style of argumentation --
>and it certainly isn't the style of argumentation used in real
>science -- we may as well give up. I suggest you look at the
>Project 1947 list, on which just today Jan Aldrich addressed the
>identical childish challenge, just issued from Phil Klass. Pace
>Jan, here's a counterchallenge: name the top 10 cases that
>conclusively prove the existence of ball lightning.

Yes, and I'd have to say that even though I submitted here a list
of 10 cases that I think are suggestive cases for the ETH for the
reasons given there, I and every other serious researcher realize
that all we have is a probability that what is reported in those
10 cases (or any other 10 that have survived the years) is a true
representation of what occurred.

Furthermore, as I pointed out on the P-47 list, 10 cases are
insufficient statistically and scientifically to derive patterns
or other deep conclusions from. No scientist in any other field
would be taken seriously basing conclusions on only 10 data
points with potentially significant error bars.

Pattens from the Rodeghier Vehicle Interference study and the
Vallee 1954 wave study are more compelling than any patterns
derivable from 10 cases.

------
Mark Cashman, creator of The Temporal Doorway at
http://www.geocities.com/~mcashman
- Original digital art, writing, and UFO research -
Author of SF novels available at...
http://www.infohaus.com/access/by-seller/The_Temporal_Doorway_Storefront/
------



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