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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 1998 > Jun > Jun 11

Re: Occam's Razor and UFOs

From: Greg Sandow <gsandow@prodigy.net>
Date: Wed, 10 Jun 1998 08:53:27 -0400
Fwd Date: Thu, 11 Jun 1998 17:24:26 -0400
Subject: Re: Occam's Razor and UFOs


>From: Jeff King <Boroimhe@aol.com>
> Date: Tue, 9 Jun 1998 19:22:23 EDT
> To: updates@globalserve.net
> Subject: Re: Occam's Razor and UFOs

> Greetings to the list:

> >From: Greg Sandow <gsandow@prodigy.net
> >Date: Mon, 8 Jun 1998 09:31:07 -0400
> >Fwd Date: Mon, 08 Jun 1998 23:11:21 -0400
> >Subject: Re: Occam's Razor and UFOs

> >> Date: Sun, 7 Jun 1998 18:46:27 -0500 (CDT)
> >>To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <updates@globalserve.net>
> >> From: Dennis Stacy <dstacy@texas.net>
> >>Subject: Re: UFO UpDate: Re: Occam's Razor and UFOs

> >What might falsify the ETH?

> Isn't this a question proponents of the ETH, rather than the PH,
> should answer?  After all, this is the nub of most criticism of
> the ETH.  John the Magonian, the Laughing Duke  and the
> Sasquatch, have posed this question precisely because (I assume)
> they cannot think of a way to falsify the ETH.  So far, no ETH
> proponent on this list has offered even the hint of a reasonable
> answer.

> Your own caveat regarding the significance of the vindication of
> your ETH predictions (listed in your earlier response to Rob
> Irving) are well taken.  As Hendry, and others, have demonstrated
> IFOs can show up on radar, leave traces at reported landings and
> affect the physical world.  I'm not sure lots of alien artifacts
> and bodies are needed to prove the ETH, however. One properly
> authenticated piece of alien hardware or dead alien and that's
> it, break out the champagne.

It's not easy to falsify the ETH, just as it's not easy to prove
it.
Its opponents attack it in the simplest way possible -- they try
to refute suggestive evidence. ("That sighting you mention CAN be
explained!" Or, more slyly: "You claim this sighting defies
conventional explanation, but your claim has been disputed.")

But this evidence, as Mark Cashman pointed out, doesn't really
support the ETH. It supports the OEH, as he calls it, the
Objectively Existent Hypothesis.

So let's see. If a UFO crashed, beyond any dispute, and the
wreckage was stamped "Made in Zeta Reticuli"....well, you get the
idea. So, on the other side of the question, if one crashed and
on the debris we read "Made in Wales by Peter Brookesmith"....of
course you see what I mean there.

Of course, if a UFO crashed and turned out, disturbingly, to be
made in North Korea (in what would later be revealed as an
attempt to spread Kim Il Sung thought throughout the universe),
we still wouldn't have refuted the ETH. Someone could always say,
"Ah, yes, but all the other UFOS are really alien!"

Maybe then we're reduced to another scenario. Aliens land --
right out in the open, just outside an African village (to
demonstrate that all beings are equal, and they could give a spit
about the White House lawn). Their ship looks nothing like any
reported UFO, and when John Mack -- who happens to be on the
scene, looking for more African abduction reports -- asks them if
they're the ones we've been seeing in the skies and in our
bedrooms, their skin flashes purple in what we learn is the alien
equivalent of giggles. "Oh, Goddess, no!" they chortle (turning
out to be feminists as well as egalitarians, though it's later
revealed that they have six sexes). "Your nonsense about UFOs --
just as your skeptics say -- is the result of fantasies of hope
and fear, all caused by your arrival on the verge of serious
travel into space. We see this on nearly every planet we visit."

Though of course they could be lying!

Back to the drawing board. I think we're left with Mark's and my
straightforward notion that if UFOs are alien craft, they'll have
stable, discernable physical characteristics (though perhaps
other traits that seem like magic to us). Once those
characteristics are definitively pinned down, we can go on to
theorizing about where the craft come from, and perhaps derive
testable predictions from theories that they're time travellers,
interdimensional, and so forth.

Greg Sandow




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