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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 1998 > Jun > Jun 11

Re: Occam's Razor and UFOs

From: Jeff King <Boroimhe@aol.com>
Date: Thu, 11 Jun 1998 20:18:59 EDT
Fwd Date: Thu, 11 Jun 1998 23:41:49 -0400
Subject: Re: Occam's Razor and UFOs


Morning/Afternoon/Evening (pick one based on time zone) all:

>From: Greg Sandow <gsandow@prodigy.net>
>To: "'UFO UpDates - Toronto'" <updates@globalserve.net>
>Subject: RE: UFO UpDate: Re: Occam's Razor and UFOs
>Date: Wed, 10 Jun 1998 08:53:27 -0400

>John Mack -- who happens to be on the scene, looking for more
>African abduction reports -- asks them if
>they're the ones we've been seeing in the skies and in our
>bedrooms....

Here’s a frightening thought for you. The aliens actually tell
Mack that everything he’s postulated about them is correct and
we’re stuck with alien overlords who talk in nothing but new
agey platitudes.

>Back to the drawing board. I think we're left with Mark's and my
>straightforward notion that if UFOs are alien craft, they'll have
>stable, discernable physical characteristics (though perhaps
>other traits that seem like magic to us).

While I agree that this would be good support for Cashman’s OEH,
the difficulty is reliably establishing the existence of these
characteristics. For example, anecdotal eyewitness testimony is
not a very good source for ensuring that these characteristics
exist.  Cases that have been solved to the satisfaction of most
everyone can be shown to share important characteristics with
unsolved cases that are accepted as fair evidence of an
anomalous phenomenon.   Also, there’s the inevitable problem
that many sighting reports are only solved through pure luck,
meaning that there’s always the risk that one or more of those
establishing the unifying physical characteristic are in the
unknown category because of pure *bad* luck.   Not to forget, as
you said before, if we can prove up the OEH, this doesn’t really
say anything about the ETH per se.  For that we need something
like Cashman’s prediction of detection in outer space, even if
this isn’t a good prediction to use for falsification of the
ETH.

And now for something completely different (and off topic).  I
haven’t seen any recent reviews of yours in the Journal of the
Vast Right Wing Conspiracy (a/k/a The Wall Street Journal).
Have you really been absent for a good while, or have I just
missed your stuff in their new Friday format?

Regards,

Jeff


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