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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 1998 > Jun > Jun 13

Re: The Ten Cases

From: Mark Cashman <mcashman@ix.netcom.com>
Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 00:21:19 -0400
Fwd Date: Sat, 13 Jun 1998 19:38:18 -0400
Subject: Re: The Ten Cases

>From: RobIrving@aol.com
>Date: Fri, 12 Jun 1998 09:46:50 EDT
>To: updates@globalserve.net
>Subject: Re: UFO UpDate: Re: The Ten Cases

>Correct me if I'm wrong, but you seem to be suggesting
>(particularly in your reply to Dennis) that it is has been pretty
>well established that the farmer saw what he says he saw;
>'beings' collecting samples.

I have seen no rebuttal of this case. To the best of my
knowledge, Masse was interviewed several times and at length,
and by different investigators. No suggestion has ever been made
that the witness had any motivation for hoaxing, any history of
hoaxing or mental illness, and, certainly, given the situation
as described, misperception is out of the realm of possibility.
The witness was interviewed by police authorities who also
examined the traces.

>>> For instance, Valensole has beings, sample gathering, unusual
>>> traces, and the startling performance normal to UFO cases.

>The case, the scenario, the story has beings. That's how I see
>it, not that that makes it untrue, of course.

The beings were seen examining a lavender plant. The object
departed at a speed so high as to seem almost instantaneous. The
beings aimed a device at Masse which seemed to prevent him from
moving when he came close. So there's more than just beings.

>Previously I mentioned Max Burns' Sheffield case because it made
>me ask myself why cases, as you say, stand the test of time. What
>would you expect to happen that would pull the rug from under our
>farmer's story if it were untrue? Does the fact that it's an old
>story make it better because no-one has thus far successfully
>disproved it? What would it take to do that? By what standard did
>you deem a single-witness story to be untrue?

The Sheffield case is already embroiled in controversy that
seems to be going badly for it. That is the sort of thing that
one would expect to find happening to Valensole if it were an
unreliable case.

Remember, the witness was also interviewed by the police, who
have extensive experience in dealing with frauds and unreliable

Yes, a report which has been investigated many times over many
years and which retains consistency over that time is certainly
more reliable than one which has not. That's the point.

Single witness reports (not "stories") are generally not granted
a probability higher than 3 (according to Hynek) regardless of
the credibility of the witness. Nonetheless, the standard which
allows it to attain that level of probability requires a stable
witness with a good reputation, with no problematic history
before or after. Obviously, as shown in the discussion of the
Desvergers' case, even a multiple witness case with an
unreliable primary witness will tend to be discredited.

Mark Cashman, creator of The Temporal Doorway at
- Original digital art, writing, and UFO research -
Author of SF novels available at...

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