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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 1999 > Apr > Apr 5

Re: Kraus vs. Friedman

From: Greg Sandow <gsandow@prodigy.net>
Date: Mon, 5 Apr 1999 12:22:52 -0400
Fwd Date: Mon, 05 Apr 1999 14:55:02 -0400
Subject: Re: Kraus vs. Friedman

>>From: Joe Murgia <Ufojoe1@aol.com>
>>Date: Sun, 28 Mar 1999 23:53:15 EST
>>To: updates@globalserve.net
>>Subject: Friedman vs. Krauss Debate


>>This last point gets to the heart of the matter. The general
>>issue of alien visitation is so a prior ludicrous, on the basis
>>of any sound physical reasoning, that any claim that it has
>>actually happened would have to meet the strongest skepticism
>>and scrutiny.

There's no way of knowing how likely alien visits are, because
we don't have any data.

By data, I mean hard facts. If I'm curious to know how likely I
am to run into someone from Bulgaria, I can start with some
facts. Bulgarians do visit the United States. There are bound to
be some in the Bulgarian embassy in Washington, and the
Bulgarian mission to the UN in New York, so my chances of
meeting one are greater in those cities, and presumably smaller
in Akron, Ohio. So if I met one in Akron I might be surprised,
and much less surprised in Washington or New York. But I do know
that meeting a Bulgarian in the United States is entirely

What are the chances of encountering aliens here on earth? We
don't have a clue. We don't know how many intelligent races
there are in the galaxy, or, in fact, if there are any at all.
If they do exist, we don't know if they travel from star to
star. If there's a concentration of them, but very distant from
us, maybe they're less likely to come here. But if there are
spacefaring aliens on a planet of Alpha Centauri, just four
light years away, then they might well visit here, even if they
face the same limitations on interstellar travel that we face,
at our present level of technology.

Since we don't know any of this -- since we have no data at all
about alien races -- then we can't estimate the probability of
alien visits. Anyone who tries it is simply guessing.

And since we can't know what scientific advantages we might make
in the next hundred, thousand, million, or billion years, we're
in no position to make assumptions about what technology aliens
might have. There might, for all we know, be scientific paradigms
that go beyond Einstein, just as Einstein went beyond Isaac
Newton. Advanced races might find interstellar travel much easier
than we think it is. Or they might not -- but there's no way we
can know.

Greg Sandow

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