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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2003 > Dec > Dec 14

Re: Drake Equation Naeye Sayer - Cohen

From: Jerry Cohen <rjcohen@optonline.net>
Date: Sat, 13 Dec 2003 14:46:17 -0500
Fwd Date: Sun, 14 Dec 2003 15:26:41 -0500
Subject: Re: Drake Equation Naeye Sayer - Cohen

>From: UFO UpDates - Toronto <ufoupdates@virtuallystrange.net>
>To: <- UFO - UpDates Subscribers ->
>Date: Sun, 07 Dec 2003 10:51:04 -0500
>Subject: Drake Equation Naeye Sayer

>Source: The Sunday Toronto Star


>Dec. 7, 2003. 01:00 AM

>Drake's factors irrelevant in our lonely galaxy

>Terence Dickinson
>The Universe

>In 1961, American astronomer Frank Drake developed his famous
>equation for estimating the number of technologically advanced
>civilizations in the galaxy.

>Known ever since as the Drake Equation, it is simply a list of
>six factors that Drake said multiply together to yield an
>estimate of the number of other planets harbouring life forms
>technically equal to or more advanced than humans.
>The six factors are: (1) the fraction of stars that have
>planets, (2) the fraction of those planets that are habitable,
>(3) the fraction of habitable plants upon which life actually
>develops, (4) the fraction of life-bearing planets upon which
>intelligent life evolves, (5) the fraction of the intelligent
>life that engages in interstellar communications and (6) the
>length of time the communication continues.

>The Drake Equation has been featured in countless books and
>articles on the possible existence of extraterrestrials.

>Because all factors but the first are very poorly known,
>different authors plug in different numbers for each factor,
>resulting in a vast range of results.

>In the 1960s, Drake and astronomer Carl Sagan concluded that one
>in 1 million stars might harbour creatures capable of
>communicating with each other. That means approximately 1
>million civilizations in the Milky Way that could be using radio
>telescopes or other means, in Sagan's words, to "reach across
>immense interstellar distances to their neighbours."

>The Drake Equation went on to become the conceptual foundation
>for the search for extraterrestrial life, which continues today
>in the form of radio telescope searches for signals from other

>However, more and more scientists are having their doubts about
>the optimistic numbers and a substantial number of researchers
>consider the equation as obsolete as a black and white
>television from the '60s.

>Writing in the current issue of Mercury, published by the
>Astronomical Society of the Pacific, editor Robert Naeye argues
>that the factors in the Drake Equation are almost certainly much
>less optimistic than Drake and Sagan ever imagined.

>Moreover, Naeye says the original factors used by Drake exclude
>the possibility that extraterrestrials might travel across the
>galaxy in search of life on other worlds.

Son of a gun.


>Drake, 74, maintains that spaceships will never routinely transport
>intelligent creatures across the vast reaches of the galaxy.

Ah yes, that good old word "never." I can't believe he ever
used it. Yep, man will "never" fly, stones from "out there" will
"never" fall to the earth, Boston will "never" win the World
Series (because of "the curse.")

It's almost as good as the word "always." The earth will
"always" be the center of the universe, the sun will "always"
rise, etc.

>"The fuel requirements of such ships do not make any sense in
>terms of cost and efficiency," he said in a recent talk at
>Stanford University.

Aha! That explains why we can't have any visitors from out
there. They had no way to develop Drake's proposed propulsion
systems and economic theories without him. Actually, they would
have called him to get his input but they couldn't because...
they didn't think he existed! Besides, even if he did exist,
they couldn't call him anyway because of the great distance
involved. Too much of a delay.

What? Reach who?... You got me, I don't know. But, now I
understand why we'll never visit them either. None of us exist!

>Naeye counters: "At least some technically advanced
>civilizations are not going to sit around on their home planet
>waiting to pick up radio signals from other civilizations. They
>will figure out how to engage in interstellar travel."


>For this reason alone, the Drake Equation should be retired as

>The reality today is that more than 40 years of radio searching
>for extraterrestrial signals have turned up nothing and there is
>not a shred of evidence that aliens are travelling around the
>galaxy in spaceships.

Yep, and we have the best tools in the galaxy too. No one else
could possibly have better ones. Besides they don't have the
right chips. No one else could keep our "sophisticated (100?
year old) tools" from seeing them if they found it advisable to
do so. No planets out there are old enough to have civilizations
that are older than ours and none stand a shred of a chance of
being hundreds or thousands of years ahead of us. If they exist,
most civilizations destroy themselves before they ever get a
chance to really discover what's out there in the great beyond.

>It all leads to the conclusion that, if we aren't alone, we are
>almost alone.

"Come on Myrtle, turn off that dern crystal radio, put your head
back in here and close the coffin. Stop trying to find others
out there... they don't exist. There ain't enough room in this
here galaxy for anyone else to be alive anyways! Not enough
stars and planets."

And Myrtle says: "But Harry, what the hell is this?






"and this here rebuttal to the guy that says those Exeter
things, back in the '60's was only Fire Balloons"


It's O.K. Myrtle, you know there's nobody else out there. Yur
just havin' another one of them hallucibinations. We's just a
freak of nature, and thet thing with the lights all over it that
the AF guys had on radar, flew over yur car four times, and
hovered over our house the other night was just a bat. Nothin'
tuh worry about. Ah read it in Mercury. Go to sleep!

Myrtle: O.K. Harry. Goodnight!... . . But, what did them guys just
say about Rendelsham?

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

And y'all have a good night too,

Jerry Cohen