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Secrecy News -- 05/04/05

From: Steven Aftergood <saftergood.nul>
Date: Wed, 4 May 2005 13:51:02 -0400
Fwd Date: Thu, 05 May 2005 12:54:27 -0400
Subject: Secrecy News -- 05/04/05


SECRECY NEWS
from the FAS Project on Government Secrecy
Volume 2005, Issue No. 43
May 4, 2005


**	THE RISE OF CHINA (CRS)
**	US MILITARY AND IRAQI CASUALTY STATISTICS (CRS)
**	NUCLEAR RESEARCH IN SAUDI ARABIA AND SYRIA
**	SPACE SUPPORT TO ARMY OPERATIONS
**	ST KITTS RATIFIES COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY


THE RISE OF CHINA (CRS)

In its ascendance as an economic and military power, China is
increasingly a subject of both fear and fascination among
political leaders and the popular press.

"An intimate friend and a hated enemy have always been
indispensable to my emotional life," Freud wrote in The
Interpretation of Dreams, "and not infrequently ... friend and
enemy have coincided in the same person." (Modern Library
edition, p. 345).

Something similar seems to be true with respect to China, which
has simultaneously been the object of ingratiating praise and
pre-emptive demonization, as it has compelled the attention of
would-be global strategists and others.

"China is on a rising path and America welcomes the emergence of
a strong and peaceful and prosperous China," President Bush said
in 2002 (quoted in the Washington Times today).

Yet China is also becoming a major driver for U.S. offensive and
defensive military planning. The cover story of the latest
Atlantic Monthly, entitled "How We Would Fight China,"
anticipates a new cold war with the People's Republic.

Much of the background that underlies American policy interest
in China can be gleaned from several recent reports prepared by
the Congressional Research Service.

"The Rise of China and Its Effect on Taiwan, Japan, and South
Korea: U.S. Policy Choices," April 12, 2005:

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32882.pdf

"China-U.S. Relations: Current Issues and Implications for U.S.
Policy," March 10, 2005:

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/RL32804.pdf

"China's Economic Conditions," updated April 25, 2005:

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IB98014.pdf

"China-U.S. Trade Issues," updated March 3, 2005:

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/row/IB91121.pdf

"China's Growing Interest in Latin America," April 20, 2005:

http://fpc.state.gov/documents/organization/45464.pdf


US MILITARY AND IRAQI CASUALTY STATISTICS (CRS)

U.S. and British government officials often declare insistently
that the war against Iraq was "worth it," despite the failure to
discover weapons of mass destruction, because the tyranny of
Saddam Hussein has been brought to an end.

But it is difficult to support this conclusion with a cost-
benefit analysis because the costs, which continue to be paid,
are often not reported and may be unknown.

In particular, "the Department of Defense does not publicly
release numbers on Iraqi civilian deaths, Iraqi security forces
deaths, or medical evacuations of U.S. military personnel
outside of Iraq," as noted in a new report from the
Congressional Research Service.

The CRS report therefore presents a range of estimates, of
varying degrees of reliability, to help fill that information
void.

See "U.S. Military and Iraqi Casualty Statistics: Additional
Numbers and Explanations," April 26, 2005:

http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/natsec/RS22126.pdf

Congress earmarked $20 million for Iraqi civilians who suffered
losses as a result of the Iraq war in the final House-Senate
conference agreement on emergency supplemental appropriations
for FY 2005 (H.R. 1268, section 2108).

That financial assistance is to be designated the "Marla Ruzicka
Iraqi War Victims Fund," in memory of aid worker Marla Ruzicka
who died in a car bomb attack on April 16 and who "inspired the
creation of this program and a similar program in Afghanistan,"
the conference report stated.


NUCLEAR RESEARCH IN SAUDI ARABIA AND SYRIA

Scientists in Saudi Arabia, like those in many other non-nuclear
weapons states, have demonstrated an interest in various aspects
of nuclear science and technology.

Independent researcher Mark Gorwitz recently compiled a
bibliography of Saudi nuclear research publications, culled from
journal articles and conference proceedings. Cumulatively they
tell a story to those who know how to read them.

Most of the studies are unexceptionable forays into nuclear
physics, nuclear reactor safety, and so forth. Slightly more
surprising are a few papers on nuclear weapons effects.

See "Saudi Arabian Nuclear Science Bibliography: Open Literature
Citations" by Mark Gorwitz, May 2005:

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/saudi/biblio.pdf

Mr. Gorwitz performed a similar bibliographical exercise on
Syrian nuclear research. See "Syrian Nuclear Science
Bibliography: Open Literature Citations," May 2005:

http://www.fas.org/nuke/guide/syria/biblio.pdf


SPACE SUPPORT TO ARMY OPERATIONS

The role of space technology in supporting U.S. military
operations is discussed on an unclassified basis in a new Army
field manual.

In short: "The Army is critically dependent on space
capabilities to enable and enhance land warfare. Virtually every
Army operation uses space capabilities to some degree. Today, we
use space largely for its ability to enhance the effectiveness
of our combat forces. We can communicate; navigate; target,
find, and fix the enemy; anticipate weather; and protect our
forces based on combat and support assets available from space.
We also strive to control space so adversaries cannot overcome
our asymmetrical advantages in space."

See "Space Support to Army Operations," Field Manual (FM) 3-14,
May 2005 (130 page, 5 MB PDF file):

http://www.fas.org/irp/doddir/army/fm3-14.pdf


ST KITTS RATIFIES COMPREHENSIVE TEST BAN TREATY

The Carribean island nation of St. Kitts and Nevis last week
ratified the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) that bars
nuclear explosive testing, becoming the 121st country to do so.
The United States is not among them.

The two islands that together make up St. Kitts and Nevis are
about one and a half times the size of Washington, DC, according
to the CIA World Factbook. The CIA also notes that Nevis is
seeking independence from St. Kitts -- which would create the
possibility of an additional ratification of the CTBT.

See "Saint Kitts and Nevis ratifies Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-
Ban Treaty," CTBT Organization news release, May 3:

http://www.fas.org/irp/news/2005/05/ctbt050305.html



_______________________________________________
Secrecy News is written by Steven Aftergood and published by the
Federation of American Scientists.

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_______________________
Steven Aftergood
Project on Government Secrecy
Federation of American Scientists
web:  www.fas.org/sgp/index.html
email: saftergood.nul
voice: (202) 454-4691




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