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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2007 > Jan > Jan 10

Re: Holes In The Cloud Deck - Shough

From: Martin Shough <parcellular.nul>
Date: Wed, 10 Jan 2007 15:29:03 -0000
Fwd Date: Wed, 10 Jan 2007 14:22:57 -0500
Subject: Re: Holes In The Cloud Deck - Shough


>From: Viktor Golubik Diverge247.nul
>To: ufoupdates.nul
>Date: Wed, 10 Jan 2007 08:37:41 EST
>Subject: Re: Holes In The Cloud Deck

>>From: Michael Tarbell <mtarbell.nul>
>>To: ufoupdates.nul
>>Date: Mon, 08 Jan 2007 10:33:55 -0700
>>Subject: Re: Holes In The Cloud Deck

<snip>

>>We should keep in mind that the water/air mass in the "beam"
>>need not be brought to the boiling point of water. It need only
>>be brought above the dew point temperature, such that the
>>droplets are out of equilibrium with their vapor. If the cloud
>>is just below the dew point and the droplets are very small, the
>>power requirements could be fairly modest, and the process would
>>proceed quite rapidly, certainly more rapidly than some of the
>>coalescence/rain-out processes we have discussed.

>Hi Mike,

>I agree with your analysis here. I only want to add that the
>rapid movement of the object may simply have added enough heat
>to shift the dew point equilibrium condensation point. This may
>be especially true at the lowest cloud boundary at the
>penetration point.

>Since weather radar is more apt to have detected water
>condensation and ice crystal formation patterns, I wonder if
>such a station (if it exists nearby at all) might have detected,
>not only the object, but it's interaction with the cloud
>stratification's.

I've looked into this to some extent Viktor. A detailed map of
precipitation and doppler wind velocities in the area of the
object would be fascinating vis a vis some of the questions
discussed here recently about the "cloud hole". There are
multiple weather radars covering the area but the situation is
complicated.

There are Terminal Doppler Weather Radars at O'Hare, and also at
Midway to the south. I'm still looking for he exact locations of
these antennas but in the O'Hare case the TDWR probably would
have had some opportunity to cover the target area, depending on
the phase of its scan algorithm at the time. TDWR does a
complicated sequence of rotation, elevation and changes with a
pencil beam to map the surveillance volume over the course of
several minutes, with a rapid low-elevation scan at high
resolution out to a short range of 5 miles with an update rate
of 1 minute. The O'Hare TDWR might have had a chance to image
the area where the object was reported, but the spatial
resolution is not good - 150-300 m in range by about 1 degree
cross-range (100 ft @ 1 mile).

At greater distances there are several WSR-88D radars in the
NEXRAD network with overlapping coverage of the area, but not at
low altitude, and would only have been able to possibly detect
the object on its projected upward departure course and/or image
weather phenomena at these higher levels that might have been
associated with it or with its passage. Unfortunately once again
the spatial resolution of these radars is poor, comparable to
the TDWR out to about 124 nmi (kilometer blocks at larger
ranges) and with a 5 - 6 minute.

So the prospect of good weather radar data is not great but I do
have NEXRAD data files from the nearest radar for times
bracketing the observation. Unfortunately I haven't got around
to being able to access them. These are "CMP" files and I
suspect they are UNIX format (?). If anyone has access to UNIX
I'd appreciate some help.

All of these weather radar data are actually merged into an
integrated weather product that is fed to the FAA Air Traffic
Control (for the C-90 Chicago O'Hare region this is at Elgin,
Illinois) where it is available to controllers on a dedicated
channel of the ASR-9 surveillance radar. NARCAP has a request
granted but still pending with FAA for ATC surveillance radar
data. When this is forthcoming it is likely to offer the best
chance for radar detection of the "object", but I suspect this
will only be primary and secondary target data, and won't
include any of the weather product.


Martin Shough




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