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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2007 > Oct > Oct 21

Re: Non-Investigated Flying Objects

From: Michael Tarbell <mtarbell.nul>
Date: Sun, 21 Oct 2007 11:38:20 -0600
Archived: Sun, 21 Oct 2007 17:14:00 -0400
Subject: Re: Non-Investigated Flying Objects


>From: Brad Sparks <RB47x.nul>
>To: ufoupdates.nul
>Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2007 20:36:21 EDT
>Subject: Non-Investigated Flying Objects

>I suggest naming the category of non-investigated or
>uninvestigated sightings "NFOs" or Non-investigated Flying
>Objects (NFOs). This is an indeterminate catchall category for
>initial incoming sighting reports prior to any Hynek screening
>or investigation. Most cases will fall into this category and
>never get reclassified as either IFOs or UFOs. The 'NFO' term
>falls nicely in between IFO and UFO alphabetically which is
>conceptually where it belongs.

<snip>


Hi Brad,

While I agree this approach is well-motivated, it may be erring
in the other direction. One must at least consider, how would
NFOs be distributed if in fact they _were_ all investigated? The
reasonable default presumption would seem to be that they would
follow the distribution of the investigated cases, i.e., a 2-to-
1 ratio of UFOs to IFOs. The implication is that a full
investigation of every report would reveal that fully 67% of
them represent genuine unknowns. I think this would strike most
people, including UFO researchers, as unreasonable.

Of course, we may suppose (correctly, I think) that the cases
that get investigated do not represent a random sampling from
the entire body of reports. Indeed, it is reasonable to think
that the more anomalous cases would get higher priority for
investigation, with the result that genuine unknowns are over-
represented in the UFO/IFO group and under-represented in the
NFO group. However, without some way to quantify this bias, it
is difficult to estimate the actual fraction of unknowns in the
entire data set.


Mike



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