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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2007 > Oct > Oct 21

Re: Splendid UFO Video From Avebury Engeland

From: Martin Shough <parcellular.nul>
Date: Sun, 21 Oct 2007 18:47:21 +0100
Archived: Sun, 21 Oct 2007 17:19:40 -0400
Subject: Re: Splendid UFO Video From Avebury Engeland


>From: Bert Reijersen van Buuren <a.w.r.v.b.nul>
>To: <ufoupdates.nul>
>Date: Sat, 20 Oct 2007 20:07:26 +0200
>Subject: Re: Splendid UFO Video From Avebury Engeland

>>From: Martin Shough <parcellular.nul>
>>To: <ufoupdates.nul>
>>Date: Mon, 15 Oct 2007 11:21:15 +0100
>>Subject: Re: Splendid UFO Video From Avebury Engeland

>>>>50 miles away. A better candidate might be a flare drop during
>>>>a military exercise over the Army Training Estate on Salisbury
>>>>Plain about 15-20 miles SW of Avebury.

<snip>

>After downloading this movie with YouTube downloader as a MPEG
>file and examining it frame after frame with VirtualDub there
>remains a big question!

There does: Why did you not measure anything, preferring instead
to rely on vague assertions (below) that you could as well have
made without bothering to examine it?

>It is impossible that those lights belong to aircraft due to the
>fact that those lights sometimes drop down very fast etc and
>flares don't hover around like those lights?

As I already explained I don't favour the theory that these are
aircraft lights. Several times we do see the lights descend
relatively fast, for moment, then slow up. Each time this
happens it is just when the light first appears. The behaviour
seems to me to be evidence in favour of magnesium flares.

The typical flare mechanism is that when dispensed a timer sets
off a detonator which expells the flare candle and the parachute
from the pod. As soon as the parachute encounters drag it jerks a
lanyard which ignites the flare. So what you'd expect to see is
that as soon as the burning flare appears it slows rapidly from
the initial velocity of the free-falling pod to that of the
parachute. See e.g.

http://www.fas.org/man/dod-101/sys/dumb/luu2.htm

http://compass.seacadets.org/pdf/nrtc/an/14014_ch8.pdf.

As for "flares don't hover around like those lights" I think it
is up to you to prove to us that this is true. What is the
angular scale of the film frame in the different zoom modes used?
What are the angular sizes of the horizon features? What are the
vertical and horizontal angular rates of the lights? What
velocities do these rates correspond to at different ranges, and
how do those velocities fit known wind speeds and flare-drop
rates etc?

Since you don't bother to address any of these questions I can
only make my own guesstimates. At maximum wide-angle when the
camera pulls back at the end to show the whole scene in daylight
I reckon that the tree visible in the "UFO" sequences is about
1/40 of the frame width. Not knowing the camera system I'd guess
that this might mean the tree isd in the region of 1.0 degree
across. At least that's the right order of magnitude. Viewing
the light sequences again with an eye on the second timer I'd
judge that the typical horizontal angular rates of the lights
are in the order of 1.0 deg/min and the vertical rates somewhat
less, say 0.5deg/min (these are figures that you can refine
precisely from your "frame by frame examination" but they'll do
for now).

Say the Salisbury Plains Army Training Estate (in the right
direction) where a flare drop occurs is 20 miles away; 0.5 deg @
20 miles is about 1000 ft and a rate of 1000ft/min works out to
about 17 ft/sec. The specification rate of afll of an LUU-2
magnesium flare (e.g.) is about 15ft/sec. That seems pretty
close to me. The lateral rate could be somewhat greater.
1.0deg/min @ 20 miles is about 20 knots, i.e.Beafort 5-6 or
"fresh to strong breeze". The direction of motion (from SW
towards the S) would not be inconsistent with prevailing wind
direction.

If you have better figures and accurate weather data that
challenge these prima facie indications then by all means let's
have them.


Martion Shough





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