From: Ray Dickenson <r.dickenson.nul> Date: Wed, 2 Nov 2011 15:18:33 -0000 Archived: Wed, 02 Nov 2011 11:25:04 -0400 Subject: Science Undershoots Again [was: Can't Stop Seeing >From: Ray Dickenson <r.dickenson.nul> >To: <post.nul> >Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 20:00:17 -0000 >Subject: Re: Can't Stop Seeing UFOs <snip> >... am reading Paul Davies' somewhat pessimistic thoughts on all >things SETI. >It turns out he's inclined to believe, quite firmly, that >intelligent organic life will inevitably be superseded by its >own AI creations ... Hello List, just finished the book and Paul Davies revealed (on p. 207*) his conclusion on SETI probabilities. Which turns out to be a bit different from that `only if' scenario above. As a scientist he thinks we're alone in the universe! Personally think he forgot to look at the history of science predictions - a necessary task before you attempt a Bayesian analysis of those probabilities: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference Science has _always_ clung to anthropocentric (smallest amd safest) forecasts - wildly underestimating time frames (in geology _and today's `age of universe' guesses) and distance frames (distance to Moon and Sun, to other galaxies, _and_ today's `size of universe' estimates). Earlier, anyone dissenting was burnt at the stake like Bruno (also threatened to Galileo). Today they are simply ignored, suppressed by scientific `consensus'. Bayesian analysis shows that, so far, that `consensus' has always been wrong! It has always underaimed, and therefore undershot - hugely - when forecasting. Why should this generation be any different? * 'The Eerie Silence' - by Paul Davies Cheers Ray D BTW - the Copernican Principle (which science claims to hold) actually says - "We're not special" - and that should be applied to every generation of scientists. Listen to 'Strange Days... Indeed' - The PodCast At: http://www.virtuallystrange.net/ufo/sdi/program/ These contents above are copyright of the author and UFO UpDates - Toronto. They may not be reproduced without the express permission of both parties and are intended for educational use only.
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