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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2011 > Nov > Nov 2

Science Undershoots Again [was: Can't Stop Seeing

From: Ray Dickenson <r.dickenson.nul>
Date: Wed, 2 Nov 2011 15:18:33 -0000
Archived: Wed, 02 Nov 2011 11:25:04 -0400
Subject: Science Undershoots Again [was: Can't Stop Seeing


>From: Ray Dickenson <r.dickenson.nul>
>To: <post.nul>
>Date: Tue, 1 Nov 2011 20:00:17 -0000
>Subject: Re: Can't Stop Seeing UFOs

<snip>

>... am reading Paul Davies' somewhat pessimistic thoughts on all
>things SETI.

>It turns out he's inclined to believe, quite firmly, that
>intelligent organic life will inevitably be superseded by its
>own AI creations ...

Hello List,

just finished the book and Paul Davies revealed (on p. 207*) his
conclusion on SETI probabilities. Which turns out to be a bit
different from that `only if' scenario above.

As a scientist he thinks we're alone in the universe!

Personally think he forgot to look at the history of science
predictions - a necessary task before you attempt a Bayesian
analysis of those probabilities:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayesian_inference

Science has _always_ clung to anthropocentric (smallest amd
safest) forecasts - wildly underestimating time frames (in
geology _and today's `age of universe' guesses) and distance
frames (distance to Moon and Sun, to other galaxies, _and_
today's `size of universe' estimates).

Earlier, anyone dissenting was burnt at the stake like Bruno
(also threatened to Galileo). Today they are simply ignored,
suppressed by scientific `consensus'.

Bayesian analysis shows that, so far, that `consensus' has
always been wrong! It has always underaimed, and therefore
undershot - hugely - when forecasting.

Why should this generation be any different?

 * 'The Eerie Silence' - by Paul Davies


Cheers

Ray D

BTW - the Copernican Principle (which science claims to hold)
actually says - "We're not special" - and that should be applied
to every generation of scientists.



Listen to 'Strange Days... Indeed' - The PodCast

At:

http://www.virtuallystrange.net/ufo/sdi/program/

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