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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2012 > Aug > Aug 15

Re: Socorro Again

From: David Rudiak <drudiak.nul>
Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2012 16:47:19 -0700
Archived: Wed, 15 Aug 2012 17:52:45 -0400
Subject: Re: Socorro Again


>From: Viktor Golubic <Diverge247.nul>
>To: post.nul
>Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2012 13:29:39 -0400 (EDT)
>Subject: Re: Socorro Again

>>From: Martin Shough <parcellular.nul>
>>To: <post.nul>
>>Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2012 13:09:19 +0100
>>Subject: Re: Socorro Again

>>Viktor dismissed the motion of the object against the wind with
>>the remark that the direction of the wind aloft does not have to
>>be the same as the surface wind. There is some truth in this,
>>but not enough.

>Martin, I don't work in absolutes terms only with probable
>solutions. In which case, it is perfectly fine to work with
>multiple solution models running in parallel. If I discuss one
>at a time it doesn't mean I'm ruling out others, merely focusing
>a thought.

>I didn't dismiss the motion but merely pointed out additional
>information that's relevant to a full understanding of that
>motion: That information coming from firefighters. That Socorro
>is nestled near a series of mountain range immediately west of
>the city is pertinent given the information in the Chapter 6 I
>provided. The wind is coming off those mountains downward and
>parallel into the city and thus can be subjected to the local
>topological and thermo-mechanic manifold as described in that
>chapter.

Exactly. What one would expect about the contribution of the
mountains to air flow is cooler, denser air flowing DOWN from
the mountains rushing in to replace warmer, less dense air from
the lowlands.

But since the mountains were to the WEST, that mountain air
would be flowing in from the WEST and contributing a westerly
component to the wind, in addition to the westerly component
already present in the low pressure storm system pushing through
New Mexico at the time.

But this is the exact opposite of what you need for the winds to
blow a "balloon" towards the mountains, which was the direction
of departure reported by Zamora. So your own argument works
against you.

You can also look at other locations to see if the nearby
mountains had any obvious effect on the wind pattern. E.g.,
Alamogordo has very close and prominent mountains to the EAST,
and the same for Albuquerque (to the east and north). We would
expect these to generate an easterly component as the cooler
mountain air flowed down into the lowlands to the west. But this
is NOT evident from the recorded wind directions. Again, what we
see is the local winds being totally dominated by the large-
scale circulation of the low pressure system. Again, my multi-
state wind map, April 24, 1964:

http://www.roswellproof.com/SocorroWinds_April_24_1964.html

>That map of Rudiak's is too widespread to fill in the necessary
>details in the area of interest. Though its good to show the
>regional trend, it does not however have enough resolution in
>the area of interest.


This was a strong low pressure system (a late winter storm) that
was kicking up strong winds, so regardless of the mountain air
flow, this was going to dominate. This is what my "regional map"
(actually four state) map shows, including 10 weather stations
in New Mexico (throwing in El Paso which is just across the
border). EVERY weather station in the N.M./Socorro region
unambiguously shows winds varying from south to west, with NONE
having any sort of easterly component.

The local winds are clearly dominated by where in the counter-
clockwise part of the low pressure rotation pattern you are.
Thus down in the 6:00 o'clock region of the circulation pattern
(Phoenix, Tucson, El Paso, Alamogordo), there is a strong
western component, but further north and east in the 3:00
o'clock region (Albuquerque, Las Vegas), there is a strong
southern component. Socorro is sort of in between around 4:30.

You'll also notice that I bracketed the sighting time (~5:50
p.m.) at each station by using HOURLY surface winds recorded
between 5:00 and 7:00 and my map shows the range of recorded
surface winds. Thus with 10 N.M.-area stations, we are really
looking at 30 recorded wind values, not 10, yet NONE show any
sort of wind component out of the east. (In some cases--Roswell,
Cliff--there is only one wind direction shown because there was
no noticeable variation in wind direction over a two hour
period.)

(In addition we have Zamora's testimony that he observed winds
from the SSW or SW judging by the direction the dust kicked up
by his car blew. Hynek wrote about repeatedly quizzing not just
Zamora but others about wind direction. From the south, wrote
Hynek. Also wrote from SW elsewhere. So that untrustworthy
eyewitness reports about wind direction was totally corroborated
by the historical wind records.)

But I guess we are supposed to just ignore all this. Unspecified
local conditions in Socorro somehow violated this overwhelming,
unambiguous pattern of winds, just so we can accommodate a hoax
balloon hypothesis.

>There simply isn't enough wind stations to
>provide that level of detail. And why I felt it important to
>convey how wind near mountain ranges can and does actually
>behave. Also, these stations can report average values over a
>given interval of time.

What we would expect from wind generated by mountain air flow
near Socorro would be maybe to add a little more westerly wind,
not easterly. As for the averages, average wind speed and
direction is determined by 24 measurements over a two minute
period. Again, we have 30 average measures at 10 stations over 2
hours that do NOT support the notion of any wind out of the
east.

This leaves the incredibly unlikely possibility that somehow the
wind practically reversed direction only in the Socorro area,
overcoming a large multi-state low pressure circulation pattern.
Please tell us where this incredible source of easterly winds
was supposed to come from Socorro if the mountains were actually
to the west?

>let's not forget that Lonnie was interviewed not too long after
>the incident (maybe 1 to 2 hrs) on the local radio and was under
>considerable public pressure to maintain what he was then
>compelled to possibly say under the influence of a strong radio
>personality.

More doubletalk and irrelevancy. No doubt the "strong radio
personality" totally intimidated Zamora, whom Hynek instead
described as a no-nonsense, gruff cop. Let's see, what part of
Zamora's story got changed under this "considerable public
pressure"? The only one that is relevant here is the direction
of departure of the object to the WSW, which was clearly against
a stiff wind, despite all of Viktor's blather about unknown
local conditions. Why would Zamora change that part of the story
under this supposed harsh interrogation by this intimidating
"radio personality"?

>That is what some of the locals will tell you if
>you interview them. Hynek and others were not the first to
>interview him!

Well, actually he was first interviewed by fellow police
officers, the FBI agent, and the local A.F. officer from White
Sands.  If he crumbled under all that supposed public pressure
while interviewed on the radio about where the object flew off
to, you would think the contradiction would have been noted
somewhere.

>And, this does not mean I'm calling him a liar
>but pointing how stories can change when someone is suddenly
>forced into the spotlight of public attention. A prankster may
>also be less boastful given the rapidly unfolding drama.

>I'm not in any way saying everything fits but entertaining what
>I know is conceivably possible having done considerable ground
>investigation work. And, it just so happens some in that same
>area.

Well so far all I see is that nothing fits. Just a lot of
handwaving conjecture and nothing of any substance anywhere.

David Rudiak



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