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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2012 > Aug > Aug 15

Re: Socorro Again

From: Martin Shough <parcellular.nul>
Date: Wed, 15 Aug 2012 12:17:15 +0100
Archived: Wed, 15 Aug 2012 17:57:35 -0400
Subject: Re: Socorro Again


>From: Viktor Golubic <Diverge247.nul>
>To: post.nul
>Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2012 13:29:39 -0400 (EDT)
>Subject: Re: Socorro Again

>>From: Martin Shough <parcellular.nul>
>>To: <post.nul>
>>Date: Tue, 14 Aug 2012 13:09:19 +0100
>>Subject: Re: Socorro Again

<snip>

>That map of Rudiak's is too widespread to fill in the necessary
>details in the area of interest. Though its good to show the
>regional trend, it does not however have enough resolution in
>the area of interest. There simply isn't enough wind stations to
>provide that level of detail.

Not enough to do what? Prove to a level p = 1.0 that a wind-born
object is physically impossible? Of course! But as you keep
telling us, you "don't deal in absolutes" you deal in
probability. Consider therefore the probability, with due regard
to quantities, instead of leaping in with facile assertions that
a candle-balloon flying against the strong surface wind
direction is "completely plausible".

What you should have said is that this behaviour may not
necessarily be physically impossible, and in light of the actual
weather situation you should concede that this is another way of
saying that it is improbable. But I don't expect this. You talk
a good objective game (if obscurely) but your language betrays
your true underlying expectation :- "I'm somewhat paused in
going completely forward until the pranksters come forward to
fill in more of the details. But, it's conceivable they can be
tracked down rather quickly"

> And why I felt it important to
>convey how wind near mountain ranges can and does actually
>behave.

Yes it is important. So please do convey it, in detail. Explain
exactly, if you would, how drainage winds and/or turbulent flow
in the lee of mountains in the order of 10 miles away cause an
abrupt ~180-degree, tens-of-knots wind shear at a height of a
few meters above the ground near Socorro in conditions where the
local surface wind field measured at surrounding sites is fresh
to strong and steady in direction throughout the day.

BTW, David Rudiak pointed out that the wind field fits a
synoptic scale low pressure system centred over the NM/Colorado
border and dominating weather in the area. A couple of points:

This type of weather would not be unexpected in terms of the
general weather pattern of the month, which according to the
Monthly Weather Review was unusually stormy ("THE WEATHER AND
CIRCULATION OF APRIL 1964, Stormy Month in the Midwest, 1.
SEVERE WEATHER IN APRIL 1964 Frequent storms swept through the
West this month and intensified in the Plains States...").

I checked the Daily Weather Maps for April 24 and 25 1964 and
David is almost exactly correct. There was indeed a large low
pressure area dominating New Mexico, but the centre was further
north than the border, moving east across central Colorado. This
does not in the least alter the fact that the wind in central NM
was dominated by this system. An associated weather front passed
across the state between midnight local (0100EST) on Apr 23/24
and midnight on 24/25, rotating west to east and following the
low pressure circulation.

>Also, these stations can report average values over a
>given interval of time.

You don't like the "level of detail" in the actual hourly wind
measurements, you prefer the generalisation that "these stations
can" report averages. Viktor, they don't. Some specifics:
_Hourly_ observations at Albuquerque to the north and Truth &
Consequences to the south show the wind steady and fresh to
strong from the SW throughout the whole day.

In these situations we never have the ideal "level of detail",
which would be a bunch of radiosondes within meters of the
sighting area plotting the windfield in 3D up to the
stratosphere. What we have is a scatter of data and our brains
to reason with - just like the way you have proceeded in the
1965 Heflin case to determine from surrounding surface stations
that the likely winds up to a few hundred feet over Myford Rd
were probably blowing counter to the implied drift direction of
Heflin's smoke ring.

In that case it is _possible_ to argue, given evidence of light
and variable winds that morning, that the breeze in the
immediate sighting area temporarily bucked the NW trend
indicated by the few and scattered data points, rescuing
Heflin's photo. It isn't physically impossible . But you would
not argue that. You would (and do) argue that the probability of
a NW flow is strongly suggested by the trend of the wind plots.

The question you should be asking, in balance with your
reservations about the level of wind detail in Socorro, is about
the level of detail in Bragalia's candle-balloon hypothesis
which you find oh so completely plausible. Beyond a few words of
hearsay marginalia scribbled on a letter by a third party, what
detailed evidence does he have? Cardboard from pyrotechnic
devices? No. ? Suspicious foreign chemicals in the soil? No.
Tyre tracks and footprints of hoaxers leading in and out  of the
site? No. Any other evidence? No. Any hoax claimants, even,
delighted with having gulled their supposed victim? No.
Speculation? Oh yes.

>let's not forget that Lonnie was interviewed not too long after
>the incident (maybe 1 to 2 hrs) on the local radio and was under
>considerable public pressure to maintain what he was then
>compelled to possibly say under the influence of a strong radio
>personality.

To the extent that this is comprehensible, I guess you must be
saying that Zamora was persuaded by a radio presenter to fib
about the direction of departure of the object? But i admit that
this is unclear to me . Some analysis of specific documentary
evidence and a plausible motivation might help us to understand
you.

>That is what some of the locals will tell you if
>you interview them.

Will they indeed? That is interesting. I'm sure it would not be
completely futile to poll local Socorro residents in 2012 as to
their speculations re Zamora's psychology during a 1964 radio
interview - but almost.  I suppose what you mean is that there
are people in Socorro in 2012 who believe that Zamora was
hoaxed, some people who, if asked to tick "yes or no" when asked
if Zamora might have been intimidated by a radio presenter in
1964, would tick "yes"? Well, golly, that's a forceful
scientific datum, Vik.

>Hynek and others were not the first to interview him!

Hynek and the others were the first to interview the people you
are telling us to interview now, 50 years later, but you appear
to have no interest in what they told Hynek and the others then.
Hynek and the others also gave a lot of direct testimony about
Zamora's character and it was not that of a weak-willed and
easily pressured person. I think you should read the case file.


Martin



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