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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2012 > Aug > Aug 19

Socorro Again - Weather Analysis Update

From: Viktor Golubic <Diverge247.nul>
Date: Sat, 18 Aug 2012 21:27:38 -0400 (EDT)
Archived: Sun, 19 Aug 2012 07:58:06 -0400
Subject: Socorro Again - Weather Analysis Update


To anyone interested:

Key words: surface pressure pattern and wind rose pattern.
Please look them up on Wikipedia and study them there.

Since there was no recorded wind data available in Socorro for
the day in question, publicly from the NWS or privately from the
NCDC, I proceeded to find days between early 2010 and late 2011
at the Socorro Municipal Airport that had regional surface
pressure patterns similar to those observed on the day in
question from the 4/24/1964 sighting. You can flip through twice
daily images at times, 00Z and 12Z:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

When a near-match occurred with a similar regional surface
pressure patterns from 4/24/1964, I recorded it:

3/05/2010
3/14/2010
4/13/2010
4/21/2010
4/22/2010
5/12/2010
5/23/2010
5/24/2010
5/28/2010
5/29/2010
6/12/2010
6/13/2010
5/09/2011
5/10/2011
5/30/2011

I then took these dates to the location in question, generating
wind direction charts and wind rose patterns for these specific
days at the Socorro Municipal Airport (nearest to the 1964
sighting). I did this to determine if any counter directed air
flows existed or, in essence, could have been likely present
during Zamora's sighting as an effect of the mountain range and
valley directly WSW and W respectively.

To replicate this, start at:

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/land.html#dandp)

Then select hourly surface data, the fifth bullet under
Observational Data.

Find the Surface Data heading, the 2nd entry is Global and US -
Integrated Surface Hourly, then click the_Web Page_button. Read
the commercial use agreement, and select _I agree_ if all is O.
K.

Next, continue with the advanced option. You will be on_Surface
Data, Hourly Global page_. Since we want data from the US, keep
the button in front on country selected. And, since you will
want to create wind roses you will need to select _Data Summary_
under the_Select Output Format_section. Then select the continue
button.

On the next page, you will select your state and on the following
page you will select the location.

Finally you should be at a page with six options with a title of
_Surface Data, Hourly Global: Summaries_

Then, in section 1, select_Create custom summary--go to step 2_

Then in section 3 of 2, select_Using a date/time range_ and
select one of the days from the above the list and then
select_Single Table Summary_

Then, in section 5, Select_Hourly Only_

Then, in section 6, Select_Wind-Speed/Direction Summary_

You can then generate wind rose patterns and charts for certain
days from the above pool - specifically those below. But, For
some reason, I couldn't generate many of the others, perhaps
attributed to the fact that they may have been on days without
any collected wind data:

4/13/2010
4/21/2010
4/22/2010
5/09/2011
5/10/2011
5/30/2011 see data below for one example

Having completed some data analysis with similar pressure
surface patterns as was shown by David Rudiak on the day of
Lonnie's sighting, it does appear that a balloon could not have
been involved with the Socorro sighting, thus reducing the
probability on the UNM prank hypothesis considerably: The
proximity of the mountain range/valley does not appreciably
affect the counterclockwise wind pattern generated by the
regional surface pressure pattern NW of Socorro New Mexico
(Low), other than to channel them to a more pronounced Northerly
direction. However, when compiling data over an extended period,
the wind rose pattern does reveal more air flow westward toward
the mountains rather than away toward the East in agreement with
my supposition, but only with winds at lower intensities than
those present on the day in question or on days with different
surface pressure pattens.

Another place to get a really great wind rose program is Lakes
Environmental. They have a wind rose program for free download
called WRplot. They have some data on line, but it is old. You
would need to go to NCDC to obtain the hourly wind data, then
put it in a spreadsheet and configure WRplot to read the excel
file. But it is really easy once you have the data to load at
the times you are most interested in.

Nice surface maps are also available here:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/dailywxmap/

but there is only one per day.

You can get 4 times daily surface plots at ESRL:

http://tinyurl.com/6vgg56e

or here:

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/hour/

See how these sites will work for you and have fun!

Many thanks to the National Weather Service and the National
Climatic Data Center for their help.

Below Example: needs to be cut and pasted into Notepad or Excel
for proper spacing ...note that the top and bottom rows continue
to the next line below each.

Surface Data, Hourly Global: Summaries(DS3505)
ISD Summary
POR 05/30/2011 - 05/30/2011
Observations on the Hour Only
Wind Summary for 72362099999/SOCORRO MUNICIPAL
2011/05/30 00:00 to 2011/05/30 23:59
data counts = 24

Speed
(knots) 1-5 6-10 11-15 16-20 21-25 26-30 31-35 36-40
41-45 46-50 Total % Mean Spd

N 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NNE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ENE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
E 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ESE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SE 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
SSE 0.0 0.0 4.2 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 14.5
S 0.0 20.8 12.5 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 41.7 11.6
SSW 0.0 0.0 8.3 12.5 12.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 17.7
SW 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 21.0
WSW 0.0 0.0 4.2 0.0 4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8.3 19.0
W 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
WNW 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NW 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
NNW 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
CLM 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
VAR 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
ALL 0.0 20.8 29.2 25.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0
15.3


Best,

Viktor


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