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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2012 > Dec > Dec 10

Update To Our View Of The Drake Equation

From: Ray Dickenson <r.dickenson.nul>
Date: Mon, 10 Dec 2012 03:07:58 -0000
Archived: Mon, 10 Dec 2012 06:31:16 -0500
Subject: Update To Our View Of The Drake Equation

Hello List, another update to our view of the Drake Equation:

At Last, How Many Alien Civilizations Are There?


[Quotation Begins]

"Although the numerical results were not his objective, Maccone
estimated with his SDE that our galaxy may harbor 4,590
extraterrestrial civilizations. Assuming the same values for
each term the Classical Drake Equation estimates only 3,500. So
the SDE adds more than 1,000 civilizations to the previous

Another SDE advantage is to incorporate the standard variation
concept, which shows how much variation exists from the average
value. In this case the standard variation concept is pretty
high: 11,195. In other words, besides human society, zero to
15,785 advanced technological societies could exist in the Milky
Way. If those galactic societies were equally spaced, they could
be at an average distance of 28,845 light-years apart.

That's too far to have a dialogue with them, even through
electromagnetic radiation traveling in the speed of light. So,
even with such a potentially high number of advanced
civilizations, interstellar communication would still be a major
technological challenge. Still, according to SDE, the average
distance we should expect to find any alien intelligent life
form may be 2,670 light-years from Earth.

There is a 75% chance we could find ET between 1,361 and 3,979
light-years away. 500 light-years away, the chance of detecting
any signal from an advanced civilization approaches zero. And
that is exactly the range in which our present technology is
searching for extraterrestrial radio signals.

So, the "Great Silence" detected by our radio telescopes is not
discouraging at all. Our signals just need to travel a little
farther - at least 900 light years more - before they have a high
chance of coming across an advanced alien civilization."

[Quotation Ends]


Ray D

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