From: Ray Dickenson <r.dickenson.nul> Date: Mon, 10 Dec 2012 03:07:58 -0000 Archived: Mon, 10 Dec 2012 06:31:16 -0500 Subject: Update To Our View Of The Drake Equation Hello List, another update to our view of the Drake Equation: At Last, How Many Alien Civilizations Are There? http://phys.org/news/2012-12-alien-civilizations.html [Quotation Begins] "Although the numerical results were not his objective, Maccone estimated with his SDE that our galaxy may harbor 4,590 extraterrestrial civilizations. Assuming the same values for each term the Classical Drake Equation estimates only 3,500. So the SDE adds more than 1,000 civilizations to the previous estimate. Another SDE advantage is to incorporate the standard variation concept, which shows how much variation exists from the average value. In this case the standard variation concept is pretty high: 11,195. In other words, besides human society, zero to 15,785 advanced technological societies could exist in the Milky Way. If those galactic societies were equally spaced, they could be at an average distance of 28,845 light-years apart. That's too far to have a dialogue with them, even through electromagnetic radiation traveling in the speed of light. So, even with such a potentially high number of advanced civilizations, interstellar communication would still be a major technological challenge. Still, according to SDE, the average distance we should expect to find any alien intelligent life form may be 2,670 light-years from Earth. There is a 75% chance we could find ET between 1,361 and 3,979 light-years away. 500 light-years away, the chance of detecting any signal from an advanced civilization approaches zero. And that is exactly the range in which our present technology is searching for extraterrestrial radio signals. So, the "Great Silence" detected by our radio telescopes is not discouraging at all. Our signals just need to travel a little farther - at least 900 light years more - before they have a high chance of coming across an advanced alien civilization." [Quotation Ends] Cheers Ray D Listen to 'Strange Days... Indeed' - The PodCast At: http://www.virtuallystrange.net/ufo/sdi/program/ These contents above are copyright of the author and UFO UpDates - Toronto. They may not be reproduced without the express permission of both parties and are intended for educational use only.
[ Next Message | Previous Message | This Day's Messages ]
This Month's Index |
UFO UpDates - Toronto - Operated by Errol Bruce-Knapp