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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2012 > Jun > Jun 3

Re: Dating Arnold

From: Martin Shough <parcellular.nul>
Date: Sat, 2 Jun 2012 18:34:52 +0100
Archived: Sun, 03 Jun 2012 07:44:43 -0400
Subject: Re: Dating Arnold


>From: Don Ecsedy <don.nul>
>To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <post.nul>
>Date: Fri, 1 Jun 2012 16:02:51 -0400 (EDT)
>Subject: Re: Dating Arnold [was: Flying Saucers - The Greatest Lie Ever
>Told]

>>From: Martin Shough <parcellular.nul>
>>To: <post.nul>
v>Date: Wed, 30 May 2012 13:27:33 +0100
>>Subject: Re: Flying Saucers - The Greatest Lie Ever Told

>>>From: Don Ecsedy <don.nul>
>>>To: UFO UpDates - Toronto <post.nul>
>>>Date: Mon, 28 May 2012 11:12:49 -0400 (EDT)
>>>Subject: Re: Flying Saucers - The Greatest Lie Ever Told

>><snip>

>>>So, we know this is not referring to Arnold's report of sighting
>>>the amber or bronze colored small disks, but the Cascades
>>>sighting of June 24, 1947.

>>>What is really of interest here - and correct me if I am wrong -
>>>but in 1947 all of the official statements and all the parties
>>>interviewed, including Arnold, said he had left for Tacoma on
>>>the 30th, not the 29th. It is only in The Coming of the Saucers
>>>that Arnold says it was the 29th.

>>>So, where did the Air Force and the Navy get July 29th?

>>Hello Don

>>Excuse me for butting in, but this is an interesting point. I
>>hadn't noticed it before. You seem to be right, e.g. the FBI
>>interview report from SAC Butte does say that Arnold told him he
>>"left for Tacoma" on July 30, whereas Arnold's book gives July
>>29. Given that Arnold was writing several years later and was
>>not immune to other small date errors we should probably give
>>the benefit of the doubt to the near-contemporary documents.

>I do. However, if another July 29th reference turns up, I'm
>going to have to consider it is a pattern rather than random
>mistakes. We already have Arnold's telegram to Col. Springer of
>August 31, 1947, as well as the Analysis.

Hi Don

Yes, but what I mean is that a systematic error could stem from
an original random error that enters the record and infects it.
It can be a pattern and still be insignificant.

>IMO this is made surer by the fact that, whichever day it was,
>he flew out very early (5:30 am he said), so early that he
>couldn't get fuel at Boise and would have to stop over at La
>Grande to top up (which he did) before going on via Chehalis to
>Tacoma. This was a significant fact for him in relation to the
>odd business of the Tacoma hotel room because it convinced him
>that nobody could have seen him leave Boise (and he had
>advertised no plan to do so). So this seems well-established.
>But he wrote a letter to Palmer (covering transmittal of a copy
>of his AF letter) dated July 29, when supposedly he would have
>been in the air en route to Tacoma. The flight to Tacoma took
>all day (even starting at 5:30 he didn't make Barry's Airport
>until dusk, he said) and would leave no time for typing or
>posting letters. So it would make sense that he wrote to Palmer
>from home on July 29 and left for Tacoma the next morning.

>I haven't researched Tacoma. Please correct any mistakes I make.

I think you know more than most of us do! I already learned
something.

>I knew I'd have to, though, because I have been researching
>Rhodes and there is a Tacoma 'sidebar' to it.
>Did he write he made the decision while in Chehalis to go on to
>Tacoma that night?

Yes.

>In another post I've offered a different
>reading of the mystery reservation at the Winthrop. Arnold made
>the reservation himself when he first called the Winthrop. They
>had a vacancy. He had been awake and flying since 5:30am, and
>probably a bit disoriented (as well as dirty and hungry). It is
>not simply his recollection that might be off, but the immediate
>experience itself at the time didn't quite register with him.

I think this is a good idea. It sounds like a sensible
explanation, the sort of thing that could easily happen. I can
see how it might seem mystifying to a man in Arnold's situation,
keyed-up, tired and sensitised to expect the unusual.

<snip>

>>I suspect someone just misread the file (along with William
>>Rhodes' name) and, having conceived a mistaken association with
>>the Hamilton Field incident because of the Brown & Davidson
>>connection and the near-miss date, bracketed a bogus reference
>>to Arnold in with the Hamilton Field case of July 29, which was
>>a significant Blue Book unknown (#69 in the final tally) and
>>very influential inside ATIC at the time, as well as becoming a
>>major public case (another at the same base on the previous day
>>also made the papers).

>It's quite a mash-up of three cases, Mt Ranier, Maury Island,
>Hamilton Field, with a reference to a fourth case, Rhodes, and
>putting us in mind of a fifth sighting, Arnold's small disks, as
>well as the sighting at Hamilton the previous day, for 60 words.

Yes, it's a real beauty ;-)

>The misspelling of Rhodes as Rhoads goes back to the first
>record in the file, CIC agent Aldrich's report. The spelling
>vanishes from the files until Ruppelt's time, but it is always
>'Rhoads' in the Analysis.

OK, I didn't know that.

>I think it is an example of a pattern,
>and not random mistakes. The traces of earlier documents in
>reports gives us an idea what records were available to that
>person at that time.

Sure, but it is still a mistake. This illustrates what I meant
about an error that gets perpetuated, like (arguably) the 29
July date.

The point I made before tends to support this in the case of the
date, I feel. The fact that he provably dated a letter to Ray
Palmer "July 29 1947" does suggest that he was at home that day,
not in the middle of a wearying cross-country flight to Tacoma.
On Aug 19 he told the FBI that he left for Tacoma on July 30,
which fits Capt Smith's account and makes sense. At the and of
Aug, however, for whatever reason, he gets mixed up and puts
July 29 in his telegram to Springer (maybe it was the date he
had been _intending_ to go, or something else happened that
triggered this date in his mind). The act of writing it down for
Col Springer either "resets" the gauge of Arnold's memory, or
else he made a note of it somewhere or kept a copy of the
telegram, from which he refreshed his memory years later.
Meanwhile this telegram is in the AF system, and maybe some
document somewhere about Tacoma that the confused 'Analysis'
author referred to had contained this date. Thus a systematic
error perpetuates an originally random one.

Speculation, I concede.

>Did the FBI or the AF take a statement from Arnold in August of
>1947 about Tacoma?

Yes, FBI SAC, Butte interviewed Arnold on Aug 19 and wrote up a
6-page report for the Director on Aug 27.

>I was just browsing Wilcox's report. At the
>bottom of page 7, it mentions Arnold, following a report on
>Crisman and Dahl and a paragraph on the crash,

>"A check of the records of the Winthrop Hotel in Tacoma,
>Washington revealed that [   ] giving his address as [ ]
>Mountain View Drive, Boise, Idaho rented room 502 from July
>30th, 7:43 P.M. until..."

>And flip to the next page and the entire paragraph is blacked
>out, maybe ten lines, I'd guess. Then begins the material from
>Emil Smith.

>What could there have been following "...until" that required
>that much india ink?

I can't imagine. Must be personal data. Perhaps it listed the
other residents of the hotel? Not impossible given that notions
of bugging and phone tapping had been bruited about by Arnold
and Smith.


Regards

Martin




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