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Location: UFOUpDatesList.Com > 2013 > Oct > Oct 3

Re: The Conspiracy Of Conspiracy Theorizing

From: Ray Dickenson <r.dickenson.nul>
Date: Wed, 2 Oct 2013 16:49:47 +0100
Archived: Thu, 03 Oct 2013 08:53:59 -0400
Subject: Re: The Conspiracy Of Conspiracy Theorizing


>From: Jerome Clark <jkclark.nul>
>To: post.nul
>Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 14:50:50 -0500
>Subject: Re: The Conspiracy Of Conspiracy Theorizing

>>From: Ray Dickenson <r.dickenson.nul>
>>To: <post.nul>
>>Date: Tue, 1 Oct 2013 18:11:55 +0100
>>Subject: Re: The Conspiracy Of Conspiracy Theorizing

<snip>

>>"It seems that, if we don't know what a thing is, we humans are
>>inclined to make up explanations and believe the worst. So
>>obsessive gov't secrecy has bad effects in the citizenry.
>>However because politicos, judiciary, financiers, security/cops
>>and media are notoriously ignorant of reality (the working
>>world, how to think constructively, and even of real science),
>>our rulers get more and more paranoid - and therefore even more
>>obsessively secretive. That's a vicious circle."

>>The backstory to that observation is at:
>>www.perceptions.couk.com/mil-time2.html#else
>>and it includes a barstool ranter (although he was a bit
>>quieter than that).

>I guess I don't grasp the relevance of this to the point I made,
>which is that (1) real official misconduct occurs and (2)
>empirically baseless claims grounded only in the paranoid
>imagination only cloud a real issue.

<snip>

Hello Jerry,

You - and the rest of us - are going round in circles.

From my last you know I acknowledge the existence of _some_
baseless conspiracy theories, often owing their origin to lack
of information (including the lack of an adequate education -
which is true even of many scientists, as Lee Smolin showed).

You also know - from Vincent's list and my quotes - that a great
many actual major conspiracies exist, and you might also know
that basic Bayesian analysis therefore strongly indicates that
many more actual major conspiracies are presently unknown to us
- i.e successfully covered-up.

No-one has any idea of the ratio of real to unreal conspiracies
- because the total number of real ones is unknown, while the
unreal ones are loudly identified and repeatedly trumpeted-at by
mainstream media (I suspect that some or many unreal conspiracy
theories are invented by the MSM as "yuk-yuk"  stories - and /
or to muddy the waters or 'poison the well' as Vincent said).

You can see there's no solution to the problem - i.e. that many
or most actual 'real' conspiracies will remain unknown to us.

So calling an idea a 'conspiracy theory' doesn't detract in any
way from its likelihood of being true.


Cheers

Ray D




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